Stay focused on the games, not the hype. Despite all the injuries, COVID-19, and schedule changes. There are four teams that have an advantage this weekend. They are Green Bay, Buffalo, KC, and New Orleans. They are at home, and in the year of COVID-19, have live fans attending the game. Two of them have had a week off and two have a weather advantage.
One of the games we like is Cleveland at KC. We have watched both teams all year and come away with some interesting conclusions. The Chiefs of 2020 are not playing like the Chiefs of 2019. The team is not hungry. Each week they seem to be playing up or down to their opponent’s level. There is no urgency until the 2nd half when they seem to step it up and score enough points to win, but not to cover.
KC have all the weapons to win. They are coming off a bye and home. Andy Reid has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Andy is 7 – 0 lifetime against the Browns.
The Cleveland Browns finished up at the season 11 – 5. They won 7 games by a total 26 points.
Week 2 Cincinnati 35 – 30
Week 7 Cincinnati again 37 – 34
Week 10 Houston 10 – 7
Week 11 Philadelphia 22 – 17
Week 12 Jacksonville 27 – 25
Week 13 Tennessee 41 – 35
Week 17 Pittsburgh 24 – 22
They could easily be 8 – 8 right now and home watching the playoffs from their living room. The Browns are exciting to watch and you get a bang for your buck with every game.
We also noticed that they have gotten worse throughout the season in giving up the pass. They rank 25th against the pass. They are right in the middle of #23 Houston, #24 Minnesota and #26 Las Vegas and #27 Jacksonville. They backed into the playoffs the last week and allowed Pittsburgh to almost catch them after being up 28 – 0 last week. If Tomlin had gone for the 4th and 1, the game may have turned out differently.
The line is KC – 10 and the over / under is currently 57. KC averaged 29.5 points a game and Cleveland average 25.5.
The Super Bowl Champions need 2 games at home in front of almost 18,000 fans to get to the Big Dance. They should be scoring between 35 and 45 points. Patrick Mahomes will pick them apart. In Week 7 Joe Burrow of the Bengals was 35 for 47 and last week, Big Ben threw for 500 yards.
We see a high scoring game and will buy this down to – 8 ½. We are not laying -10 points in a shoot out and going to wait a day to see which way the line moves. If your playing the over / under, buy 2 points to make it 55 and go with the over.