From October 3: Week 4 – The Week to Watch
At the end of this season’s first month, Week 4 is when reality sets in for most, if not the whole league. We see clearly which teams are on the rise, have fallen into despair, are beyond hope, and some of the teams who are ready to play for the pot of gold known as the Super Bowl.
Each team has had three weeks to get it together: fix the timing, get the communication right, solve their problems as best as possible. This weekend, we have two games that stand out as they feature some very good teams playing bad ones.
Our first game is Buffalo hosting New England. Over the first three weeks, the Bills scored 101 points, compared to the Patriots’ paltry 36 points. The Patriots have a problem at QB as Drake Maye has taken a step back. His field play has been dismal, and the team is not playing up to their potential. The Pats are 1 – 2, with both losses coming from road games. The Bills are 3 – 0 and, with this win, could take a huge lead in their division. Briefly looking ahead, the Bills are on course to meet with the Chiefs on Thanksgiving night in Buffalo. Notably, KC is currently 3 – 0 and, as usual, are competing with Buffalo to lead the AFC.
Ultimately, Sunday is a huge game for both teams. Look for Buffalo to come out fast and put the Pats in a hole early. The Patriots will look to grind it out and keep Josh off the field. The betting line is a whopping – 7. We will buy the game down to – 6 and lay – 130 to win 100.
Our second game is at 4:05 with the Dolphins traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. Minnesota leads their division with a record of 3 – 0. They have outscored Miami by a 71 to 36 ratio and are 2nd in defense, giving up 41 points in three games. The Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL this season and now must figure out how to score against the 2nd leading team in defense. Their only weapon got injured last week. We don’t see them getting more than 10 to 13 points (if that). The line is – 9 ½. The reason it’s not higher is the lack of confidence the betting public has in their starting QB Kyler Murray and the injury of their leading WR Justin Jefferson. We feel there is a 3-point advantage playing at home and believe the defense will force a turnover for 7 points. This is adding to the fact that the Vikings are overall a much better team. We are going to buy the game down to 8 ½.