We have 12 of the 14 playoff teams in action this weekend, and the first thing to do is find the teams with the biggest issues. Having looked at each team, we’ve gotten down to the top three teams with the most issues ahead of them.
1. Miami Dolphins
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Green Bay Packers
All three have great records and play good football. However, their season is over this weekend.
1. We like KC over Miami because they are home, locked into the #3 seed, and had a chance to rest their starters in Week 18 in preparation for Miami or Buffalo. Andy and the starters really have had two weeks to prepare for the Dolphins. Back in Week 9, they beat Miami in Germany, and now two months later, they face a down and out Dolphins team with three older linebackers who were only signed this week to replace their three injured starters. Additionally, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have questionable injuries, meaning their active status will be a game time decision. Tua, who grew up in Hawaii and went to college in the south, is 0 – 4 in cold weather games. The weather is expected to be 0℉. This chilling factor has led the money line to creep up the last two days to about -240 and the line is at -4 ½ . Due to the terrible conditions in KC, you really should buy 1 ½ points to be -3.
2. Pittsburgh is another team with a problem. Actually three problems. Since TJ Wyatt is out with an injury, the starting QB is Mason Rudolph. Despite having started and won the last three games, Mason’s opponents included the Bengals and Seahawks, neither of whom made the playoffs. Their final game was against Baltimore who rested their starters. The game is up in Buffalo and the line is a whopping -9 ½. We like Buffalo, but at this line it might be a game to go with a 2 or 3 game teaser.
If you go with a teaser, you might want to try a 3 game 10 point teaser with KC + 5 ½ (the under in the KC / Miami game). The line is 44 and this will be a low scoring game. We can’t see that game going over 54 points. Now add the Cowboys at home +3.
3. Green Bay has a new QB and he will be a star for the next 8 to 9 years. He has had a good 2023, but the Cowboys at home is a tough match up. Dallas has a better defense and a much better offense. Dallas scored a league leading 509 points in regular season play, compared to the Packers who scored 383. The Cowboys are favored by 7. We like -6 and are buying a point.